Towards Net-Zero Steel: Decarbonization, Green Steel Value Chain and Sustainability in the MENA Region

Abstract

This study investigates the transition toward net-zero steel in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) by examining decarbonization as a value-chain transformation problem rather than a single-technology substitution. The purpose of the research is to develop and operationalize a consortium-based value-chain model, supported by a KPI-driven stage-readiness framework, to guide green steel deployment under real-world constraints of infrastructure readiness, investment feasibility, and multi-actor coordination. A sequential mixed-methods design was adopted. In Phase 1, qualitative data were collected through 21 semi-structured interviews with MENA steel stakeholders and international technology suppliers. The data were analyzed thematically to identify system-level constraints, feasibility conditions, and coordination logics shaping green steel implementation across upstream, midstream, and downstream stages. In Phase 2, these insights were translated into a three-stage consortium model and a structured KPI-based readiness framework with transparent scoring logic to support evidence-based assessment and decision-making. The findings show that green steel deployment in MENA depends on coordinated alignment across the value chain rather than isolated technology adoption. Decarbonization was found to be most feasible when feedstock security, renewable electricity, hydrogen and logistics infrastructure, credible measurement and verification systems, financing conditions, and supportive policy frameworks are aligned. The results further indicate that role specialization across countries, modular and upgradeable configurations, and auditable low-carbon product claims are critical to scaling green steel while preserving economic competitiveness. The study concludes that a staged consortium approach offers a more realistic and scalable pathway for green steel adoption in MENA by matching country-specific capabilities and constraints to appropriate roles within the regional value chain. The research contributes a practical decision-support architecture for policymakers, investors, and steel producers. While not presented as a final country-ranking model, the framework provides an operational basis for future readiness assessment, investment prioritization, and implementation planning.
Keywords: Net-Zero Steel, Decarbonization, Green Steel Value Chain, Sustainability, MENA Region