Offshore Green Hydrogen Production on the Dutch Continental Shelf: Techno-Economic Feasibility Assessment (2025–2050)

Abstract

The rapid expansion of offshore wind capacity in the Netherlands and across the North Sea is creating structural challenges for onshore electricity grids, while simultaneously offering an opportunity to produce renewable hydrogen offshore as an alternative energy transport vector. Offshore hydrogen production has the potential to relieve grid congestion, reuse existing offshore infrastructure, and support decarbonisation of hard-to-abate industrial sectors. However, its economic feasibility remains uncertain due to high capital intensity, policy dependence, and uncertainty in future electricity prices, technology costs, and utilisation regimes. This dissertation develops a replicable techno-economic decision-support framework to assess the feasibility of offshore green hydrogen production on the Dutch Continental Shelf over the period 2025–2050. A bottom-up levelised cost of hydrogen (LCOH) model is constructed and calibrated to Dutch offshore conditions, including wind resources, water depth, distance to shore, and existing oil and gas infrastructure. Three internally consistent scenarios (Conservative, Baseline, Optimistic) are analysed to capture plausible technology and market trajectories. Uncertainty is treated explicitly through one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and break-even threshold analysis. Results are further integrated into a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework comparing offshore hydrogen pathways with alternative decarbonisation options. Under baseline assumptions, the analysis demonstrates a 52% probability of achieving €2.0/kg LCOH by 2040, with outcomes highly sensitive to electricity price and capacity factor assumptions. Infrastructure repurposing provides substantial near-term economic and strategic advantage. The dissertation does not provide forecasts. However, it delivers a transparent and auditable framework for decision-making under uncertainty.
The baseline Monte Carlo analysis assumes statistical independence between input variables. Correlated inputs are examined exclusively as part of a dedicated sensitivity analysis using the Iman–Conover method.
Key words: Offshore green hydrogen; Dutch Continental Shelf (DCS); North Sea; Levelised Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH); PEM electrolysis; Electrolyser CAPEX; Capacity factor; Wake effects; Infrastructure repurposing; Hydrogen pipelines; HVDC transmission; Monte Carlo analysis; Sensitivity analysis; multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA); Contracts for Difference (CfD); EU Hydrogen Bank; Grid congestion; TenneT; Gasunie;